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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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38–16 on winners spread MAE 10.0 54 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Eastern Kentucky @ Western Kentucky	+3.9	156.5	71%	80–85	✓
Stetson @ Florida International	+7.7	136.2	78%	65–72	✓
UMass Lowell @ Merrimack	-0.6	125.9	40%	61–57	✓
Cal State Northridge @ Fresno State	+10.5	124.4	86%	43–61	✓
High Point @ Elon	+3.0	141.4	54%	83–77	✗
Old Dominion @ George Mason	+11.2	126.6	79%	60–50	✗
Loyola Marymount @ Long Beach State	-1.8	144.4	32%	77–74	✓
Duquesne @ Marshall	+9.4	153.8	78%	71–72	✓
Dartmouth @ Florida Gulf Coast	+3.0	142.7	69%	68–78	✓
Youngstown State @ Green Bay	-0.9	133.1	40%	82–58	✓
Southern @ Akron	+6.5	132.6	77%	62–79	✓
Alabama @ Gonzaga	+2.9	157.1	50%	91–82	✗
Middle Tennessee @ Murray State	+11.0	133.9	82%	87–93	✓
Portland State @ Weber State	+17.8	142.1	89%	69–80	✓
Montana @ Northern Colorado	+10.0	139.8	80%	75–78	✓
Northern Arizona @ Idaho State	-2.2	130.2	34%	73–70	✓
Oral Roberts @ Houston Christian	-6.0	150.5	23%	85–67	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Grand Canyon	+24.6	139.8	91%	44–91	✓
Pacific @ Cal State Fullerton	+4.4	129.4	68%	57–66	✓
South Alabama @ Jacksonville State	+2.0	140.3	53%	74–64	✗
Iowa State @ Creighton	+3.7	140.2	71%	64–58	✗
Southern Miss @ Southern Illinois	+11.1	124.5	86%	41–66	✓
UNLV @ San Francisco	+14.4	137.2	87%	62–83	✓
Northwestern @ Maryland	-2.1	139.5	42%	67–61	✓
Fairfield @ Niagara	+4.1	135.4	58%	81–71	✗
Monmouth @ Canisius	-7.2	142.9	29%	79–65	✓
Kennesaw State @ Wofford	+11.9	138.5	85%	62–88	✓
Hartford @ St. Francis Brooklyn	-0.6	137.9	37%	68–55	✓
UMBC @ Delaware	+2.3	149.6	54%	60–70	✓
Bethune-Cookman @ UCF	+14.6	137.5	88%	45–81	✓
Georgetown @ South Carolina	+6.7	141.6	79%	67–80	✓
Minnesota @ Mississippi State	+7.2	134.9	65%	81–76	✗
Richmond @ Northern Iowa	-0.6	149.4	41%	60–52	✓
Sacred Heart @ Brown	+7.9	140.3	80%	66–79	✓
NJIT @ Lafayette	+3.5	136.5	59%	90–86	✗
North Florida @ Florida Atlantic	+8.3	143.6	83%	41–76	✓
Detroit Mercy @ UIC	+1.1	139.4	57%	64–56	✗
Denver @ Texas State	+12.8	137.2	85%	58–71	✓
Marist @ Rider	+0.6	139.5	45%	79–67	✗
Quinnipiac @ Manhattan	+7.6	143.0	74%	90–73	✗
Siena @ Saint Peter's	+8.0	133.3	78%	60–58	✗
Western Illinois @ Central Michigan	-11.4	148.5	19%	97–70	✓
Valparaiso @ Western Michigan	-1.9	146.6	38%	71–60	✓
Belmont @ Samford	-7.2	152.1	24%	85–73	✓
St. Thomas @ Drake	+10.9	142.7	84%	64–74	✓
North Carolina @ Georgia Tech	-1.1	146.6	42%	79–62	✓
Arizona @ Oregon State	-13.9	148.1	18%	90–65	✓
Cal Poly @ San Diego	+10.1	123.7	83%	51–52	✓
VMI @ Seattle U	+7.6	147.6	78%	89–82	✗
SE Louisiana @ Troy	+5.9	146.1	62%	72–68	✗
Chattanooga @ Lipscomb	-5.2	142.8	19%	85–64	✓
Xavier @ Oklahoma State	+4.5	136.2	60%	77–71	✗
California @ Utah	+11.5	139.3	84%	58–66	✓
Kansas State @ Wichita State	+7.8	131.3	74%	65–59	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.