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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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41–13 on winners spread MAE 7.6 54 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Temple @ Florida Atlantic +5.9 143.0 73% 73–77 ✓
Winthrop @ Charleston Southern -3.8 158.5 30% 84–86 ✗
South Carolina Upstate @ Radford +4.5 149.2 69% 59–71 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Gardner-Webb -12.6 135.9 14% 77–71 ✓
High Point @ Presbyterian -12.1 144.8 15% 79–73 ✓
Mercyhurst @ Central Connecticut +1.9 135.8 57% 78–80 ✓
New Haven @ Wagner +2.9 131.2 60% 62–65 ✓
Saint Francis @ Stonehill +3.9 134.1 65% 77–103 ✓
Chicago State @ Long Island University +11.0 139.7 87% 56–73 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Le Moyne +4.8 136.8 67% 59–76 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Vermont +8.6 146.0 82% 64–66 ✓
Campbell @ Drexel +1.1 140.4 58% 60–65 ✓
Elon @ Towson +4.4 138.2 71% 56–58 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ UNC Wilmington +11.4 139.9 87% 65–88 ✓
Stony Brook @ Monmouth +1.9 139.2 61% 69–82 ✓
Northeastern @ William & Mary +12.0 155.0 88% 77–84 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Chattanooga +3.7 150.9 67% 85–80 ✗
Stetson @ Jacksonville +3.8 136.9 65% 85–89 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ North Florida -4.4 155.5 27% 70–76 ✗
Delaware @ Jacksonville State +3.9 134.6 65% 70–80 ✓
Liberty @ Kennesaw State -2.0 151.7 39% 65–74 ✗
Missouri State @ Louisiana Tech +1.4 133.8 58% 70–72 ✓
UTEP @ Middle Tennessee +7.1 135.1 75% 67–77 ✓
New Mexico State @ Western Kentucky +3.4 145.7 69% 70–93 ✓
Michigan State @ Purdue +6.7 143.3 74% 76–74 ✗
Denver @ Oral Roberts -5.0 149.9 26% 80–102 ✗
South Dakota State @ Kansas City -11.6 144.1 14% 73–59 ✓
VMI @ Samford +15.7 149.7 90% 61–80 ✓
Tarleton State @ Utah Valley +12.9 140.1 87% 72–79 ✓
Alcorn State @ Texas Southern +5.5 147.2 73% 87–92 ✓
Florida A&M @ Southern +6.1 145.4 77% 82–71 ✗
Western Illinois @ SIU Edwardsville +11.5 132.2 86% 47–67 ✓
Tennessee State @ Southeast Missouri State +2.3 146.6 61% 79–71 ✗
Eastern Illinois @ Lindenwood +5.9 138.2 70% 71–67 ✗
Morehead State @ Little Rock -0.1 139.5 47% 76–70 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ UT Martin +8.3 129.1 79% 49–64 ✓
Wichita State @ Memphis +0.6 142.5 51% 88–82 ✗
UC Riverside @ UC Santa Barbara +10.0 146.5 86% 59–70 ✓
North Dakota State @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +3.0 152.0 65% 62–84 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC Davis -0.8 142.8 49% 77–73 ✓
Portland State @ Montana State +1.7 136.2 60% 69–84 ✓
Sacramento State @ Montana +7.1 152.3 76% 73–81 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Idaho +9.7 142.2 84% 58–78 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Eastern Washington +0.9 153.9 53% 72–82 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Utah Tech +4.9 137.3 70% 81–85 ✓
Florida International @ Sam Houston +8.1 155.3 80% 67–100 ✓
Jackson State @ Prairie View A&M +4.1 154.7 67% 76–85 ✓
Long Beach State @ Cal Poly +5.1 152.4 71% 92–102 ✓
UC Irvine @ Cal State Northridge +0.9 149.0 56% 68–67 ✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC San Diego +15.0 143.3 90% 72–84 ✓
UT Arlington @ California Baptist +4.2 128.9 68% 56–68 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Western Michigan -11.1 159.7 16% 69–67 ✓
Yale @ Cornell -4.6 162.1 27% 69–72 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Niagara -7.4 129.4 22% 76–78 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.