We live on blood / We are Sparta F.C "Theme from Sparta FC" - The Fall
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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35–20 on winners spread MAE 9.3 55 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
St. John's @ UConn +5.1 145.5 70% 40–72 ✓
Maryland @ Nebraska +16.5 137.9 90% 61–74 ✓
Florida @ Texas -2.8 153.3 39% 84–71 ✓
Georgia @ Vanderbilt +7.1 166.2 75% 80–88 ✓
Illinois State @ Northern Iowa +3.3 130.8 67% 71–69 ✗
Lafayette @ Colgate +9.6 144.3 84% 70–69 ✗
Lehigh @ American University +5.5 142.6 73% 78–73 ✗
George Mason @ Saint Joseph's -0.2 132.4 48% 63–81 ✗
Davidson @ Duquesne +3.1 142.5 66% 67–56 ✗
North Texas @ Charlotte +0.9 134.7 51% 79–80 ✓
Holy Cross @ Boston University +6.9 142.5 75% 63–78 ✓
Butler @ Villanova +9.2 148.5 81% 73–82 ✓
Navy @ Loyola Maryland -8.3 143.0 20% 78–51 ✓
Omaha @ South Dakota -0.0 151.5 48% 72–89 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Robert Morris +8.1 147.9 80% 62–73 ✓
Wright State @ Purdue Fort Wayne -1.8 146.7 43% 74–70 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Cleveland State -5.6 157.3 27% 81–70 ✓
Mercer @ Western Carolina -0.8 153.0 49% 74–78 ✗
Wofford @ East Tennessee State +10.4 147.9 84% 72–69 ✗
Lipscomb @ West Georgia -5.2 149.7 33% 78–84 ✗
Queens University @ Eastern Kentucky -0.7 163.2 46% 96–79 ✓
Xavier @ Providence +5.5 165.2 73% 84–94 ✓
Evansville @ Belmont +17.2 150.1 91% 64–98 ✓
Tulsa @ Tulane -5.1 148.2 33% 90–56 ✓
Drake @ Valparaiso +5.1 143.9 72% 71–74 ✓
Indiana State @ Southern Illinois +9.4 141.2 84% 55–66 ✓
South Florida @ Rice -11.5 156.2 16% 75–56 ✓
East Carolina @ UTSA -3.5 143.6 35% 82–81 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Stanford +6.7 136.2 76% 67–75 ✓
Youngstown State @ Milwaukee -0.9 145.1 49% 65–78 ✗
Georgia Southern @ James Madison +6.5 148.9 75% 66–82 ✓
UL Monroe @ South Alabama +13.3 151.7 88% 54–89 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Austin Peay +5.2 145.6 73% 93–88 ✗
Portland @ Gonzaga +22.1 150.1 91% 48–89 ✓
Mississippi State @ Alabama +13.8 170.7 88% 75–100 ✓
Seattle U @ Pepperdine -6.6 134.7 22% 87–80 ✓
Kansas State @ Colorado +6.4 159.8 74% 70–79 ✓
Ohio State @ Iowa +4.7 141.8 70% 57–74 ✓
UNLV @ Grand Canyon +8.6 149.9 80% 67–80 ✓
DePaul @ Creighton +5.3 139.1 71% 72–71 ✗
LSU @ Ole Miss +0.2 146.5 53% 106–99 ✗
Texas A&M @ Arkansas +9.0 171.2 79% 84–99 ✓
Bellarmine @ North Alabama -1.9 148.1 40% 68–73 ✗
San Diego @ Oregon State +6.3 144.6 75% 82–92 ✓
SMU @ California -1.9 156.0 43% 69–73 ✗
Wisconsin @ Oregon -4.9 148.2 29% 71–85 ✗
Washington State @ Loyola Marymount +2.3 146.5 63% 66–67 ✓
Santa Clara @ Saint Mary's +4.5 148.1 70% 67–86 ✓
Utah State @ San Diego State -0.0 146.0 49% 72–89 ✗
Charleston @ Hampton -3.6 136.8 34% 85–71 ✓
Rhode Island @ St. Bonaventure +1.1 140.8 55% 76–94 ✓
New Hampshire @ Binghamton -1.4 136.9 40% 63–65 ✗
Bryant @ UMBC +13.5 135.7 88% 58–70 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Grambling +0.0 140.6 49% 76–71 ✗
Maine @ UAlbany +3.8 131.2 62% 70–59 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.