And the only safe place to live is on an Indian reservation. "Ball of Confusion" - The Temptations
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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50–13 on winners spread MAE 10.6 63 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Fresno State @ UNLV +1.3 148.8 56% 72–84 ✓
Omaha @ Lamar +2.9 138.2 63% 85–82 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Utah +8.4 155.5 79% 77–101 ✓
Portland State @ Tulane +1.2 142.1 57% 61–63 ✓
UC Riverside @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +12.1 144.4 86% 78–92 ✓
Sacramento State @ California Baptist +12.8 143.9 87% 67–74 ✓
Stanford @ Colorado +5.1 156.6 70% 77–68 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Rutgers +4.8 143.8 68% 69–70 ✓
Texas Tech @ Duke +13.4 144.0 86% 82–81 ✗
Xavier @ Georgetown +3.4 147.5 69% 80–77 ✗
Marquette @ Creighton +12.2 144.4 87% 63–84 ✓
San José State @ New Mexico +13.0 143.2 88% 65–88 ✓
Rice @ Pepperdine +1.7 135.3 55% 62–84 ✓
Utah Tech @ Weber State +7.4 146.8 76% 82–80 ✗
Boise State @ Nevada -0.7 140.6 45% 66–81 ✗
San Diego State @ Arizona +16.3 156.6 88% 45–68 ✓
Colgate @ Florida +18.8 149.5 90% 60–90 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Boston University +4.3 146.2 66% 76–88 ✓
Charleston @ Northern Kentucky +5.9 145.6 72% 85–74 ✗
Pittsburgh @ Penn State +2.4 146.0 63% 80–46 ✗
Vanderbilt @ Wake Forest -0.8 158.1 37% 98–67 ✓
Lehigh @ Monmouth +6.4 141.2 71% 62–76 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Hofstra +8.6 143.9 75% 66–74 ✓
Southern @ Baylor +20.6 163.1 91% 67–111 ✓
Ole Miss @ NC State +9.8 146.6 83% 62–76 ✓
Stony Brook @ Marist +6.0 134.9 71% 51–70 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Alabama +19.5 168.3 90% 81–92 ✓
Murray State @ Valparaiso -7.0 150.8 27% 85–79 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Bradley +4.2 148.8 72% 69–73 ✓
Presbyterian @ Manhattan -0.4 134.4 47% 81–87 ✗
Charleston Southern @ Furman +5.5 145.0 74% 76–84 ✓
UIC @ Charlotte +4.1 134.5 66% 76–88 ✓
Maine @ Drexel +5.6 128.9 69% 56–74 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ George Mason +22.8 142.0 91% 79–86 ✓
Central Arkansas @ SMU +17.1 146.8 89% 82–99 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Notre Dame +16.5 147.9 89% 72–69 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ Oklahoma State +15.2 164.3 88% 89–94 ✓
VMI @ Radford +8.8 150.0 80% 90–97 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Tennessee +24.7 148.1 91% 52–94 ✓
Cornell @ UAlbany -3.9 163.3 36% 83–75 ✓
Chattanooga @ Alabama A&M +5.8 133.8 70% 73–66 ✗
UNC Asheville @ UAB +11.3 143.4 84% 47–72 ✓
UMBC @ South Florida +16.8 150.8 89% 69–94 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Incarnate Word +5.1 133.5 69% 66–90 ✓
Oregon State @ Arizona State +13.3 145.3 87% 78–75 ✗
New Hampshire @ Saint Louis +24.9 141.0 91% 79–93 ✓
Cincinnati @ Clemson +8.2 133.6 81% 65–68 ✓
La Salle @ Michigan +25.1 142.6 91% 50–102 ✓
Drake @ Evansville -5.2 143.8 35% 66–65 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Texas A&M +17.9 153.3 90% 77–118 ✓
Florida A&M @ TCU +23.0 137.3 91% 56–80 ✓
North Florida @ Miami +24.6 159.9 91% 67–105 ✓
Sam Houston @ New Mexico State +0.2 146.2 50% 78–87 ✓
UConn @ DePaul -10.7 134.4 17% 72–54 ✓
Indiana State @ Illinois State +14.1 144.7 88% 65–85 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Wichita State +13.6 141.1 87% 57–88 ✓
Milwaukee @ Cleveland State -5.4 154.1 29% 81–71 ✓
Columbia @ California +8.9 144.9 78% 56–74 ✓
Long Beach State @ Iowa State +25.5 152.1 91% 60–91 ✓
Gonzaga @ Oregon -7.6 147.2 19% 91–82 ✓
Campbell @ Minnesota +11.6 141.0 85% 50–78 ✓
UC Davis @ Idaho State +10.5 141.2 83% 93–83 ✗
Morgan State @ San Francisco +20.2 144.4 91% 64–94 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.