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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
15–3 on winners
spread MAE 7.8
18 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UC Irvine
@
North Dakota State
|
+3.5 | 135.0 | 66% | 74–73 | ✗ |
Nicholls
@
Pacific
|
+10.8 | 135.2 | 82% | 82–95 | ✓ |
Idaho
@
Cal Poly
|
+0.4 | 154.5 | 49% | 83–80 | ✗ |
North Dakota
@
Nebraska
|
+24.5 | 144.1 | 91% | 55–78 | ✓ |
Norfolk State
@
UTEP
|
+2.4 | 129.1 | 57% | 72–71 | ✗ |
New Haven
@
Fordham
|
+10.7 | 127.5 | 79% | 47–65 | ✓ |
West Georgia
@
Georgia
|
+25.0 | 161.7 | 91% | 74–103 | ✓ |
Sacred Heart
@
Towson
|
+9.6 | 139.3 | 81% | 47–72 | ✓ |
NJIT
@
Butler
|
+22.7 | 145.2 | 90% | 52–101 | ✓ |
Denver
@
Tulsa
|
+18.7 | 163.8 | 90% | 85–90 | ✓ |
Seattle U
@
UTSA
|
-8.8 | 135.9 | 16% | 71–68 | ✓ |
South Carolina State
@
South Carolina
|
+23.4 | 141.8 | 91% | 70–95 | ✓ |
SIU Edwardsville
@
Western Illinois
|
-5.9 | 137.4 | 28% | 66–61 | ✓ |
Abilene Christian
@
Texas Southern
|
-6.0 | 142.0 | 28% | 75–68 | ✓ |
Portland
@
UC Santa Barbara
|
+6.3 | 148.7 | 73% | 61–79 | ✓ |
American University
@
Virginia
|
+19.1 | 151.9 | 91% | 51–95 | ✓ |
Siena
@
Indiana
|
+17.6 | 134.4 | 89% | 60–81 | ✓ |
Coppin State
@
Georgetown
|
+21.3 | 146.5 | 91% | 67–97 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.