Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | TLSA -1600 DEN +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +5 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | TLSA -20.4 (-15.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 174.8 (+0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -16.8 (-11.8) | 157.8 (+17.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -18.7 (-13.7) | 163.8 (+11.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -20.8 (-15.8) | 162.8 (+12.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -22.8 (-17.8) | 159.3 (+15.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-8 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-8 |
| Home | 16-2 | 9-5 |
| Away | 8-4 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.9 | 80.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 84.0 |
| Massey | 12.0 (#42) | -4.2 (#231) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.80 (#24) | 0.11 (#164) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.91 (#25) | -0.49 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.630 (#21) | 0.504 (#162) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 40.9% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 29.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.2% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 37.1% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 60.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 62.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.