Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | TXSO +160 ACU -192 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXSO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +7 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | ACU -6.6 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (-5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ACU -7.3 (+0.3) | 138.4 (+4.6) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -6.0 (-1.0) | 142.0 (+1.0) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ACU -6.4 (-0.6) | 143.6 (-0.6) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ACU -5.7 (-1.3) | 137.9 (+5.1) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2024 | ACU 69 – 65 TXSO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXSO | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-18 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 9-5 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-12 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.0 | 73.9 |
| Massey | -14.6 (#350) | -3.9 (#223) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.76 (#342) | 0.45 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.71 (#339) | 0.39 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#266) | 0.557 (#86) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXSO | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.5% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.58 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.1% | 56.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 63.5% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.2% | 46.3% |
Game Analysis
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