Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | TOW -1350 SHU +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +25 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | TOW -11.7 (+13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (-21.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -9.9 (+15.1) | 144.8 (-25.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -9.6 (+15.4) | 139.3 (-20.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -10.2 (+14.8) | 141.2 (-22.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -9.0 (+16.0) | 137.8 (-18.8) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | SHU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-11 |
| Home | 11-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-10 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 77.6 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#155) | -6.5 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#100) | -1.11 (#262) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#106) | -1.66 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#63) | 0.445 (#273) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | SHU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 26.2% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 37.9% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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