Betting Lines
| Spread | UGA -36.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 173.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UGA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UGA +29 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | UGA -33.4 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 172.8 (+4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UGA -28.4 (+0.6) | 165.6 (+11.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UGA -25.0 (+4.0) | 161.7 (+15.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UGA -31.9 (-2.9) | 162.7 (+14.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UGA -32.5 (-3.5) | 163.5 (+13.5) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UGA | WGA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 6-4 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 89.4 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 80.5 |
| Massey | 21.5 (#7) | -7.8 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.09 (#49) | -0.16 (#191) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.65 (#59) | -1.22 (#248) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#59) | 0.507 (#157) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UGA | WGA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.9% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 43.5 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 32.7% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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