Betting Lines
| Spread | SEA -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | UTSA +400 SEA -535 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEA +3 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | SEA -12.6 (+9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEA -6.8 (+3.8) | 138.8 (+0.2) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEA -8.8 (+5.8) | 135.9 (+3.1) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SEA -9.3 (+6.3) | 135.9 (+3.1) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEA -7.9 (+4.9) | 139.5 (-0.5) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-25 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 8-10 |
| Home | 2-12 | 14-4 |
| Away | 2-12 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.9 | 68.2 |
| Massey | -11.7 (#328) | 5.1 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#250) | 1.61 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.60 (#267) | 2.62 (#61) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#200) | 0.537 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.7% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 27.6% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.9% | 56.9% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 62.6% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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