Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -21.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | IU -5000 SIE +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +21 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | IU -21.0 (+0.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (+2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IU -21.1 (-0.1) | 135.5 (+5.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -17.6 (+3.4) | 134.4 (+6.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IU -18.6 (+2.4) | 136.1 (+4.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -17.7 (+3.3) | 136.1 (+4.9) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | SIE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 13-7 |
| Home | 14-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.2 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 17.0 (#23) | 0.1 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#86) | 0.33 (#149) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#85) | 0.06 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#71) | 0.495 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | SIE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.83 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.7% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.8% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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