And I'm so pilled up that I rattle. "Revolution Rock" - The Clash
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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43–14 on winners spread MAE 12.9 60 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Duke @ Army -2.8 140.7 38% 114–59 ✓
Florida State @ Florida +5.7 157.9 66% 76–78 ✓
Radford @ North Carolina +17.6 149.7 89% 74–89 ✓
Norfolk State @ Old Dominion +6.5 146.8 74% 57–60 ✓
Drexel @ Colgate +2.9 137.4 60% 83–90 ✓
Alcorn State @ Maryland +11.8 138.7 83% 64–84 ✓
Winthrop @ Coastal Carolina +4.8 148.2 67% 66–72 ✓
Florida A&M @ UCF +12.4 152.5 86% 60–97 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Villanova +10.0 147.5 81% 60–94 ✓
Northwestern State @ North Alabama +7.0 140.9 77% 83–87 ✓
Toledo @ Wright State +14.5 144.7 88% 81–71 ✗
Jacksonville @ High Point +13.7 151.7 85% 64–85 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Florida Gulf Coast +2.0 159.3 60% 95–94 ✗
La Salle @ Temple +7.0 141.4 70% 63–90 ✓
Wagner @ Fordham -3.9 140.7 33% 61–63 ✗
Chicago State @ Butler +19.2 151.4 89% 66–98 ✓
Davidson @ Charlotte +9.8 146.7 81% 62–55 ✗
NJIT @ Loyola Maryland +4.7 130.2 65% 66–64 ✗
William & Mary @ Richmond +6.8 147.6 67% 86–90 ✓
Stonehill @ Rhode Island +6.8 138.3 68% 57–80 ✓
Dayton @ Cincinnati +2.9 141.1 52% 62–74 ✓
Morehead State @ Clemson +22.4 151.7 91% 56–83 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Boston College +17.6 128.8 87% 60–59 ✗
Northeastern @ Harvard +6.0 145.1 70% 77–60 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Providence +3.8 154.1 63% 81–106 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Saint Francis +0.1 142.2 50% 74–66 ✗
Bucknell @ Princeton -4.1 144.9 31% 63–73 ✗
Alabama State @ UAB +21.3 144.9 90% 77–74 ✗
Yale @ Quinnipiac -6.5 145.3 25% 97–60 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Notre Dame +16.4 139.9 88% 58–78 ✓
Kentucky @ Louisville +9.3 150.2 77% 88–96 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Arkansas +20.7 141.9 90% 56–93 ✓
Wofford @ Auburn +13.6 140.6 86% 62–93 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Kansas +19.4 140.2 89% 46–77 ✓
Merrimack @ Tarleton State +7.6 146.4 78% 62–76 ✓
Tulane @ Louisiana +6.4 133.6 68% 66–62 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ Rice +2.3 141.7 56% 81–69 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Oklahoma +18.6 150.6 89% 69–95 ✓
Buffalo @ DePaul +14.7 145.1 88% 66–53 ✗
Arkansas State @ Missouri State — — — 86–85 —
Cal State Northridge @ North Dakota State +6.5 146.7 73% 68–90 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Nebraska +21.0 131.8 90% 50–69 ✓
Murray State @ SMU +3.4 147.0 57% 91–102 ✓
Queens University @ Duquesne +13.1 149.1 85% 81–87 ✓
Texas Tech @ Illinois +15.9 157.6 87% 77–81 ✓
Ball State @ Wisconsin +16.0 150.6 88% 55–86 ✓
Austin Peay @ Wyoming +0.3 142.0 43% 65–79 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Arizona +19.1 147.8 88% 49–84 ✓
Delaware @ BYU +13.9 142.3 86% 68–85 ✓
Memphis @ Ole Miss +16.0 143.3 87% 77–83 ✓
UC Riverside @ New Mexico +8.4 133.7 74% 68–82 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ UTEP — — — 71–58 —
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Boise State +5.2 156.7 66% 65–85 ✓
Hampton @ Virginia +9.4 146.4 79% 53–91 ✓
Western Illinois @ Cal State Bakersfield +0.4 141.3 54% 58–74 ✓
Creighton @ Gonzaga +16.9 147.8 88% 63–90 ✓
Ohio @ Saint Mary's +16.7 145.2 88% 60–90 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Sacramento State — — — 92–87 —
Montana @ UNLV +14.7 146.5 85% 102–93 ✗
Binghamton @ Georgetown +19.8 135.3 91% 70–83 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.