Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | UNLV -700 MONT +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONT +9 | 195 | Lost |
| Massey | UNLV -17.9 (-26.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.1 (+33.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | UNLV -14.7 (-23.7) | 146.5 (+48.5) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -16.9 (-25.9) | 151.6 (+43.4) | 87% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-6 | 11-6 |
| Away | 7-7 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.3 | 77.6 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#153) | -4.2 (#251) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#314) | -0.38 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#299) | -0.56 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.263 (#305) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.4% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.3% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 27.0% |
| ORB% | 41.3% | 17.9% |
| FT Rate | 50.5% | 31.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 6.7% |
| DRB% | 77.5% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.1% | 11.4% |
Game Analysis
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