Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | HPU -4000 JAX +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +21 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -17.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.0 (-14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -13.7 (+7.3) | 151.7 (-2.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -18.2 (+2.8) | 150.7 (-1.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -13.8 (+7.2) | 150.8 (-1.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-5 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 7-11 |
| Home | 17-1 | 8-4 |
| Away | 7-2 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.4 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#44) | 4.2 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#91) | -0.36 (#202) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#76) | -0.50 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#136) | 0.500 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 58.0% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 45.0% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 28.0 | 20.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.83 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 64.5% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 8.2% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 15.6% |
| FT Rate | 11.6% | 12.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 58.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 30.1% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 55.9% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 59.2% |
Game Analysis
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