Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | UNM -6000 UCR +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +14 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -12.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (+17.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -8.4 (+5.6) | 133.7 (+16.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -12.2 (+1.8) | 131.6 (+18.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -11.5 (+2.5) | 131.8 (+18.2) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 5-15 |
| Home | 17-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 7-5 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.8 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 79.1 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#120) | 3.0 (#118) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#112) | 1.22 (#63) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#111) | 1.47 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#232) | 0.375 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 55.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 4.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 60.5% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 26.8% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 17.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 51.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.1% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 29.6% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 75.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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