Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -6000 RAD +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +15 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -25.1 (-10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.2 (+3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -17.6 (-2.6) | 149.7 (+13.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -21.7 (-6.7) | 151.9 (+11.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -22.1 (-7.1) | 146.5 (+16.5) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 7, 2023 | UNC 86 – 70 RAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-7 |
| Home | 18-0 | 12-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.7 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 80.8 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#24) | -2.4 (#223) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#82) | 0.43 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.28 (#77) | 0.53 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.938 (#7) | 0.500 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.1% | 52.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 27.3% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.70 | 1.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.0% | 58.8% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 11.7% |
| ORB% | 41.2% | 43.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 39.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 53.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.1% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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