And the only safe place to live is on an Indian reservation. "Ball of Confusion" - The Temptations
Dean E. Smith Center · November 12, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread UNC -20.5 Away covered
O/U 162.5 Over
Money UNC -6000 / RAD +1800
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNC win
Actual UNC +15 163 Won
Massey UNC -25.1 (-10.1)
Massey Totals 159.2 (+3.8)
Bradley-Terry 93%
Weighted B-T 97%
Baseline Tuned ML UNC -17.6 (-2.6) 149.7 (+13.3) 89%
Baseline ML UNC -21.7 (-6.7) 151.9 (+11.1) 89%
Baseline Plus ML UNC -22.1 (-7.1) 146.5 (+16.5) 89%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 7, 2023 UNC 8670 RAD

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNC RAD
Overall 24-9 16-16
Conference 12-6 9-7
Home 18-0 12-5
Away 4-6 4-8
Neutral 2-3 0-3
Last 5 2-0 1-0
Streak L3 L2
Avg Pts For 79.7 79.9
Avg Pts Against 71.6 80.8
Massey 10.2 (#24) -2.4 (#223)
Bradley-Terry 0.85 (#82) 0.43 (#142)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.28 (#77) 0.53 (#146)
RPI 0.938 (#7) 0.500 (#136)
Shooting & Four Factors UNC RAD
FG% 51.1% 52.9%
3PT% 32.1% 27.3%
REB / G 42.0 30.0
OREB / G 14.0 13.0
AST / TO 1.70 1.71
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 58.0% 58.8%
TOV% 15.9% 11.7%
ORB% 41.2% 43.3%
FT Rate 22.1% 39.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.9% 52.5%
Opp TOV% 21.0% 17.1%
DRB% 76.7% 53.1%
Opp FT Rate 13.1% 22.0%

Game Analysis

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