Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | SMC -4000 OHIO +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +30 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -23.9 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.3 (-3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | SMC -16.7 (+13.3) | 145.2 (+4.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -18.5 (+11.5) | 145.7 (+4.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -17.8 (+12.2) | 145.1 (+4.9) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-6 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 9-9 |
| Home | 17-0 | 10-6 |
| Away | 8-2 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 80.0 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#113) | -8.2 (#318) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#131) | -1.35 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#138) | -1.94 (#319) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#136) | 0.450 (#229) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.9% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 45.2% | 26.5% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 63.2% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 12.2% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 17.9% |
| FT Rate | 41.2% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 84.6% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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