Betting Lines
| Spread | BUT -26.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | BUT -100000 CHST +4000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUT +32 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | BUT -23.5 (+8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.8 (-2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUT -19.1 (+12.9) | 152.8 (+11.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUT -19.2 (+12.8) | 151.4 (+12.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUT -21.8 (+10.2) | 150.9 (+13.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUT -20.3 (+11.7) | 156.0 (+8.0) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUT | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-7 | 5-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-19 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.5 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 6.8 (#57) | -4.2 (#248) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#154) | -0.60 (#247) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#156) | -0.84 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#247) | 0.500 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUT | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 57.5 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 20.0 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 42.6% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 48.2% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 34.8% | 36.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.7% | 59.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 44.3% |
Game Analysis
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