Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -29.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +20 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | MD -18.6 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -13.1 (+6.9) | 138.5 (+9.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | MD -15.9 (+4.1) | 135.0 (+13.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | MD -11.8 (+8.2) | 138.7 (+9.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -12.8 (+7.2) | 140.4 (+7.6) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 1, 2024 | MD 96 – 58 ALCN |
| Dec 13, 2023 | MD 105 – 65 ALCN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-8 | 5-4 |
| Away | 2-10 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 80.2 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#186) | -6.5 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#258) | -0.71 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#242) | -0.98 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#221) | 0.500 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.5% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 28.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.1% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 25.4% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 49.5% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 58.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 58.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.3% | 35.5% |
Game Analysis
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