Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -34.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +38 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | MD -38.9 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.7 (+21.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -26.9 (+11.1) | 137.6 (+16.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -26.8 (+11.2) | 139.5 (+14.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -39.5 (-1.5) | 137.6 (+16.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -36.2 (+1.8) | 139.0 (+15.0) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2025 | MD 84 – 64 ALCN |
| Dec 13, 2023 | MD 105 – 65 ALCN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 17-2 | 6-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-17 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.1 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 16.9 (#15) | -16.5 (#358) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.92 (#54) | -2.58 (#343) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.61 (#60) | -3.97 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#80) | 0.417 (#300) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 33.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 38.0% |
| TOV% | 12.9% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 57.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.4% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 61.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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