I have got the sharpest knife, so I get the biggest slice. "Revolution Rock" - The Clash
Bud Walton Arena · November 12, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread ARK -35.5 Home covered
O/U 158.5 Under
Model Predictions
Spread Total ARK win
Actual ARK +37 149 Won
Massey ARK -27.6 (+9.4)
Massey Totals 150.0 (-1.0)
Bradley-Terry 91%
Weighted B-T 96%
Baseline Tuned ML ARK -20.7 (+16.3) 141.9 (+7.1) 90%
Baseline ML ARK -26.5 (+10.5) 144.1 (+4.9) 90%
Baseline Plus ML ARK -26.4 (+10.6) 144.4 (+4.6) 90%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 14, 2024 ARK 8257 CARK
Dec 2, 2021 ARK 9760 CARK
Dec 13, 2020 ARK 10075 CARK

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ARK CARK
Overall 28-9 22-12
Conference 13-5 15-3
Home 17-1 14-1
Away 5-5 6-10
Neutral 6-3 2-1
Last 5 1-1 0-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 90.2 79.3
Avg Pts Against 81.0 76.0
Massey 6.4 (#65) -8.6 (#320)
Bradley-Terry -0.11 (#175) -0.35 (#199)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.03 (#168) -0.52 (#208)
RPI 0.469 (#216) 0.750 (#28)
Shooting & Four Factors ARK CARK
FG% 45.7% 31.2%
3PT% 30.4% 27.6%
REB / G 39.0 30.0
OREB / G 13.5 10.0
AST / TO 1.70 0.53
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.3% 37.5%
TOV% 15.4% 22.6%
ORB% 34.6% 23.3%
FT Rate 31.0% 9.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.0% 58.5%
Opp TOV% 17.5% 15.9%
DRB% 62.2% 62.5%
Opp FT Rate 22.3% 27.7%

Game Analysis

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