Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -35.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +37 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -27.6 (+9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.0 (-1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -20.7 (+16.3) | 141.9 (+7.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -26.5 (+10.5) | 144.1 (+4.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -26.4 (+10.6) | 144.4 (+4.6) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2024 | ARK 82 – 57 CARK |
| Dec 2, 2021 | ARK 97 – 60 CARK |
| Dec 13, 2020 | ARK 100 – 75 CARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 15-3 |
| Home | 17-1 | 14-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.2 | 79.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.0 | 76.0 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#65) | -8.6 (#320) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#175) | -0.35 (#199) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#168) | -0.52 (#208) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#216) | 0.750 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 31.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 27.6% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.70 | 0.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 37.5% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 31.0% | 9.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 58.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 62.2% | 62.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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