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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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18–7 on winners spread MAE 14.4 29 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Indiana State @ SIU Edwardsville	+16.5	147.8	89%	64–55	✗
South Carolina State @ North Carolina A&T	+8.7	145.7	81%	62–85	✓
Presbyterian @ Georgia State	+14.1	128.8	88%	63–61	✗
Western Kentucky @ Eastern Kentucky	—	—	—	87–79	—
Fairfield @ Seton Hall	-2.6	127.0	33%	59–82	✗
UNC Wilmington @ Kent State	—	—	—	77–86	—
Charleston Southern @ The Citadel	+4.0	134.4	69%	96–86	✗
Eastern Michigan @ Pittsburgh	+7.8	133.7	74%	66–78	✓
Stetson @ Miami	+22.5	145.9	91%	61–102	✓
Mississippi State @ Iowa State	+8.6	143.4	82%	80–96	✓
Little Rock @ Milwaukee	—	—	—	72–92	—
Lindenwood @ Saint Louis	+20.2	149.5	89%	66–109	✓
Lamar @ TCU	—	—	—	65–78	—
New Orleans @ LSU	+8.8	145.8	71%	58–93	✓
Cleveland State @ Northwestern	+14.7	141.9	85%	63–110	✓
Santa Clara @ Xavier	+6.7	141.0	72%	87–68	✗
Northern Illinois @ Grand Canyon	+3.4	160.3	57%	59–88	✓
Holy Cross @ Utah	+10.5	148.1	82%	69–87	✓
SE Louisiana @ Georgia Tech	+10.6	127.6	79%	60–70	✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Washington State	+4.4	144.5	68%	71–81	✓
West Georgia @ UCLA	+11.3	135.9	82%	62–83	✓
Cal State Fullerton @ California	+11.8	146.7	83%	65–93	✓
Iona @ Kansas City	+1.9	149.3	61%	105–91	✗
Long Island University @ Air Force	-3.3	138.9	39%	76–72	✓
UMBC @ Morgan State	+2.8	147.3	63%	81–79	✗
Wake Forest @ Michigan	+9.7	150.4	81%	84–85	✓
App State @ Ohio State	+11.3	147.3	81%	53–75	✓
Lipscomb @ UNC Asheville	+12.6	149.4	86%	64–69	✓
Navy @ Penn State	+21.5	141.6	91%	71–80	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.