Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -22.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Under |
| Money | CAL -6000 CSUF +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +28 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | CAL -14.9 (+13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -11.8 (+16.2) | 146.7 (+11.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -15.8 (+12.2) | 145.5 (+12.5) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 17-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 80.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 82.2 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#123) | 1.2 (#148) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#84) | -0.41 (#228) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#87) | -0.55 (#223) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 22.7% | 18.8% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 18.4% |
| FT Rate | 38.6% | 56.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.9% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 33.8% |
Game Analysis
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