Betting Lines
| Spread | NCAT -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | NCAT -150 SCST +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCAT +23 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | NCAT -21.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.6 (-5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCAT -8.7 (+14.3) | 145.7 (+1.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCAT -8.6 (+14.4) | 146.5 (+0.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCAT -11.3 (+11.7) | 145.5 (+1.5) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2021 | NCAT 73 – 66 SCST |
| Jan 2, 2021 | NCAT 97 – 86 SCST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-19 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 7-7 |
| Home | 6-6 | 6-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 3-16 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 80.6 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#238) | -10.9 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#212) | -0.72 (#282) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#219) | -1.02 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#124) | 0.312 (#254) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 33.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 22.5% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 37.3% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 24.8% |
| ORB% | 18.9% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.3% | 59.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 43.5% |
Game Analysis
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