Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | XAV -165 SCU +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SCU +19 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | XAV -12.1 (-31.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (+11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -6.7 (-25.7) | 141.0 (+14.0) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -7.1 (-26.1) | 138.4 (+16.6) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | SCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 15-3 |
| Home | 12-6 | 14-1 |
| Away | 1-10 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.4 | 82.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#220) | -0.6 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.17 (#56) | 0.41 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#54) | 0.56 (#138) |
| RPI | 0.750 (#29) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | SCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.4% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 39.2% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 47.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 25.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 56.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.3% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.2% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 78.4% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 33.3% |
Game Analysis
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