Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | PITT -2500 EMU +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +12 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | PITT -13.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.8 (+12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -7.8 (+4.2) | 133.7 (+10.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -11.3 (+0.7) | 129.9 (+14.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -7.3 (+4.7) | 130.7 (+13.3) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 4-14 |
| Home | 8-10 | 7-7 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#95) | 4.3 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#41) | 0.35 (#146) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.25 (#34) | 0.53 (#142) |
| RPI | 1.000 (#1) | 0.500 (#124) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 27.3% |
| REB / G | 47.0 | 53.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 22.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 44.5% |
| TOV% | 23.5% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 41.8% | 46.8% |
| FT Rate | 44.7% | 8.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.8% | 35.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 25.1% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.6% | 13.8% |
Game Analysis
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