Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | GAST -165 PRES +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRES +2 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | GAST -30.2 (-32.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.1 (-4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -14.1 (-16.1) | 128.8 (-4.8) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -15.1 (-17.1) | 124.7 (-0.7) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -15.1 (-17.1) | 126.6 (-2.6) | 87% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-9 |
| Home | 7-7 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-12 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 73.1 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#170) | -16.3 (#351) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#269) | -2.29 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#263) | -3.77 (#347) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#124) | 0.200 (#297) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 33.0% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 26.3% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 38.7% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 23.9% | 23.9% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 34.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 59.1% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 29.1% |
Game Analysis
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