Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | PSU -1000 NAVY +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +9 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | PSU -33.9 (-24.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (+2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -21.5 (-12.5) | 141.6 (+9.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -29.1 (-20.1) | 142.6 (+8.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -27.4 (-18.4) | 140.8 (+10.2) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 17-1 |
| Home | 9-8 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-9 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.3 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 19.1 (#5) | -1.2 (#199) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.67 (#3) | 0.47 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.06 (#4) | 0.85 (#99) |
| RPI | 0.771 (#27) | 0.750 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.8% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.31 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.6% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 9.9% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 35.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.6% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.3% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.