Betting Lines
| Spread | OSU -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | OSU -10000 APP +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OSU +22 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | OSU -15.8 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.3 (-32.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OSU -12.0 (+10.0) | 144.4 (-16.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OSU -11.3 (+10.7) | 147.3 (-19.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OSU -11.7 (+10.3) | 148.4 (-20.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OSU -11.5 (+10.5) | 145.0 (-17.0) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OSU | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#182) | -2.4 (#222) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#151) | -0.31 (#194) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#155) | -0.59 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.396 (#233) | 0.271 (#272) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OSU | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 64.8% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 48.0% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 76.2% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 13.1% |
| ORB% | 39.5% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 49.5% | 31.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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