Betting Lines
| Spread | GT -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | GT -2000 SELA +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GT +10 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | GT -13.4 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.6 (+6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GT -6.7 (+3.3) | 130.1 (-0.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GT -10.6 (-0.6) | 127.6 (+2.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GT -13.2 (-3.2) | 127.9 (+2.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GT -11.6 (-1.6) | 126.5 (+3.5) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 6-16 |
| Home | 10-9 | 5-7 |
| Away | 1-9 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L12 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#217) | -1.8 (#209) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#105) | -0.74 (#284) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#110) | -0.99 (#282) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#124) | 0.250 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 33.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 23.4% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 39.3% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 12.2% | 33.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 34.5% | 58.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.2% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.7% | 32.7% |
Game Analysis
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