Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | UNCA -290 LIP +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +5 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -25.1 (-20.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.0 (-24.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -7.7 (-2.7) | 148.3 (-15.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -12.6 (-7.6) | 149.4 (-16.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -13.3 (-8.3) | 149.4 (-16.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -11.9 (-6.9) | 148.7 (-15.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 24, 2023 | LIP 86 – 75 UNCA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-7 | 13-1 |
| Away | 4-9 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#68) | -5.6 (#282) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#289) | -0.56 (#251) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#271) | -0.80 (#258) |
| RPI | 0.250 (#277) | 0.375 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 38.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.38 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 23.0% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 66.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 9.8% |
| DRB% | 60.2% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 15.8% |
Game Analysis
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