Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -34.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +41 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -32.7 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.4 (+8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -22.5 (+18.5) | 145.9 (+17.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -31.1 (+9.9) | 147.4 (+15.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2021 | MIA 82 – 72 STET |
| Dec 5, 2020 | MIA 82 – 60 STET |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | STET |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-11 |
| Home | 15-3 | 9-5 |
| Away | 8-2 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 79.9 |
| Massey | 10.4 (#22) | -8.6 (#321) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#98) | -0.75 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#91) | -1.30 (#297) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#124) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | STET |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 57.4% | 38.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 27.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.05 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 62.2% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 26.9% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 38.3% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 58.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 51.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.1% | 30.2% |
Game Analysis
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