All your compliments and your cutting remarks are captured here in my quotation marks. "Everyday I Write the Book" - Elvis Costello
Neville Arena · November 12, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread AUB -27.5 Home covered
O/U 152.5 Over
Model Predictions
Spread Total AUB win
Actual AUB +31 155 Won
Massey AUB -19.1 (+11.9)
Massey Totals 148.1 (+6.9)
Bradley-Terry 91%
Weighted B-T 94%
Efficiency Plus ML AUB -15.5 (+15.5) 138.8 (+16.2) 87%
Baseline Tuned ML AUB -13.6 (+17.4) 140.6 (+14.4) 86%
Baseline ML AUB -18.1 (+12.9) 142.0 (+13.0) 87%
Baseline Plus ML AUB -17.4 (+13.6) 144.5 (+10.5) 88%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings AUB WOF
Overall 22-16 19-13
Conference 7-11 11-7
Home 14-4 10-5
Away 2-8 9-7
Neutral 6-4 0-1
Last 5 2-0 1-1
Streak W5 L2
Avg Pts For 83.0 78.4
Avg Pts Against 78.8 78.6
Massey 2.2 (#135) -4.4 (#253)
Bradley-Terry 0.54 (#129) 0.38 (#148)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.64 (#139) 0.54 (#144)
RPI 0.438 (#232) 0.750 (#28)
Shooting & Four Factors AUB WOF
FG% 47.7% 38.1%
3PT% 25.5% 22.4%
REB / G 49.0 39.0
OREB / G 19.0 12.0
AST / TO 1.53 0.86
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.3% 42.9%
TOV% 13.0% 20.7%
ORB% 48.7% 32.0%
FT Rate 41.5% 31.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.4% 50.4%
Opp TOV% 16.3% 13.7%
DRB% 76.9% 78.3%
Opp FT Rate 19.8% 22.9%

Game Analysis

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