Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -27.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +31 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -19.1 (+11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (+6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -15.5 (+15.5) | 138.8 (+16.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -13.6 (+17.4) | 140.6 (+14.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -18.1 (+12.9) | 142.0 (+13.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -17.4 (+13.6) | 144.5 (+10.5) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-16 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 2-8 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | W5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.0 | 78.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 78.6 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#135) | -4.4 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#129) | 0.38 (#148) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#139) | 0.54 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#232) | 0.750 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 38.1% |
| 3PT% | 25.5% | 22.4% |
| REB / G | 49.0 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 19.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 42.9% |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 48.7% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 41.5% | 31.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 78.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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