Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 168.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -170 TTU +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +4 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -25.7 (-21.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.1 (-9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -15.9 (-11.9) | 157.6 (+0.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -17.8 (-13.8) | 152.7 (+5.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -18.5 (-14.5) | 161.2 (-3.2) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 14-3 | 14-2 |
| Away | 8-2 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 80.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 73.1 |
| Massey | 19.8 (#3) | 6.7 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#109) | 0.71 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#94) | 1.03 (#98) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#136) | 0.500 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 55.1% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 41.2% | 39.7% |
| REB / G | 56.0 | 50.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 21.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 65.2% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 12.5% | 12.2% |
| ORB% | 50.0% | 45.2% |
| FT Rate | 33.3% | 30.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 36.9% | 42.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 8.1% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 82.5% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.9% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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