Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | CIN -240 DAY +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +12 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | CIN -4.2 (+7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (-9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -2.9 (+9.1) | 141.1 (-5.1) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -3.9 (+8.1) | 142.3 (-6.3) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -2.1 (+9.9) | 138.2 (-2.2) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2024 | CIN 66 – 59 DAY |
| Dec 17, 2023 | DAY 82 – 68 CIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-3 | 14-4 |
| Away | 2-8 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#202) | 7.5 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#141) | 1.25 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#134) | 1.72 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#232) | 0.688 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 52.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 2.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 57.8% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 10.1% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 46.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.6% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.5% | 26.2% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 12.0% |
Game Analysis
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