Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | ND -10000 EIU +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +20 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | ND -23.7 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (-8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -19.6 (+0.4) | 140.6 (-4.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -16.4 (+3.6) | 139.9 (-3.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -18.8 (+1.2) | 138.5 (-2.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -18.6 (+1.4) | 142.2 (-6.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | EIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-7 | 9-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 9.3 (#36) | -1.9 (#218) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#47) | -0.18 (#181) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#42) | -0.21 (#181) |
| RPI | 0.604 (#97) | 0.312 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | EIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.8% | 37.8% |
| 3PT% | 47.5% | 25.9% |
| REB / G | 44.5 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 0.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 62.1% | 41.3% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 25.6% |
| ORB% | 40.0% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 48.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 36.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 32.8% |
Game Analysis
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