Betting Lines
| Spread | TULN -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | UL +215 TULN -260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TULN +4 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | UL -14.6 (-18.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (-10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -4.9 (-8.9) | 126.4 (+1.6) | 64% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | UL -3.0 (-7.0) | 127.8 (+0.2) | 68% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | UL -6.4 (-10.4) | 133.6 (-5.6) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UL -6.4 (-10.4) | 135.0 (-7.0) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-8 | 10-8 |
| Away | 3-13 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 75.7 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#231) | -5.1 (#275) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#174) | 0.78 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#180) | 1.04 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.333 (#279) | 0.688 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 51.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 48.8% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 28.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 3.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 61.0% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 21.7% | 14.0% |
| FT Rate | 11.7% | 42.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 40.7% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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