Betting Lines
| Spread | DEP -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | DEP -6000 BUF +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +13 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | DEP -22.0 (-35.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.6 (-31.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEP -14.7 (-27.7) | 145.1 (-26.1) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DEP -16.9 (-29.9) | 146.5 (-27.5) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEP -15.7 (-28.7) | 143.3 (-24.3) | 88% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-7 | 7-8 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#95) | -5.0 (#272) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#106) | 0.62 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#106) | 0.74 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#136) | 0.438 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 49.0% |
| 3PT% | 26.5% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.75 | 1.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 58.0% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 11.6% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 36.9% | 52.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 61.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 77.3% | 78.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 37.1% |
Game Analysis
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