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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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40–5 on winners spread MAE 9.4 46 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
North Florida @ Tennessee	+20.9	143.8	91%	66–99	✓
Elon @ Marshall	+15.2	154.7	87%	89–96	✓
James Madison @ Longwood	+2.9	142.4	68%	72–82	✓
Presbyterian @ South Carolina	+13.8	138.9	85%	61–81	✓
Northern Kentucky @ East Tennessee State	+10.7	141.1	84%	63–75	✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Western Michigan	+8.9	146.9	79%	71–83	✓
Coppin State @ South Florida	+20.2	151.6	88%	50–100	✓
Saint Peter's @ VCU	+16.2	152.5	87%	61–78	✓
Milwaukee @ Indiana	+22.5	161.2	90%	70–101	✓
Brown @ Boston University	+16.4	139.4	90%	77–90	✓
Saint Joseph's @ Virginia Tech	+16.7	148.4	88%	59–94	✓
Siena @ St. Bonaventure	+6.9	135.3	73%	66–75	✓
American University @ George Washington	+14.7	148.9	87%	67–107	✓
Mercyhurst @ Canisius	-4.5	134.1	30%	55–58	✗
Oakland @ Houston	+16.7	145.9	88%	45–78	✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Vanderbilt	+24.1	156.7	91%	62–92	✓
Tulsa @ Oral Roberts	-3.5	146.7	39%	88–87	✓
Minnesota @ Missouri	+5.5	147.0	70%	60–83	✓
UTSA @ Texas State	+9.9	140.4	85%	69–80	✓
Little Rock @ Marquette	+13.9	145.3	86%	49–89	✓
Middle Tennessee @ Evansville	—	—	—	77–72	—
Nicholls @ Valparaiso	+0.3	135.6	48%	63–68	✓
UNC Greensboro @ NC State	+24.3	158.0	91%	64–110	✓
Prairie View A&M @ Oklahoma State	+23.3	150.4	91%	67–94	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Texas	+19.8	141.5	90%	58–93	✓
Southern Indiana @ South Dakota	+6.5	143.6	73%	74–89	✓
UT Martin @ Bradley	+8.0	136.3	68%	78–67	✗
Samford @ Texas Southern	-3.1	148.9	43%	93–90	✓
Dartmouth @ Bryant	+6.7	138.0	75%	75–82	✓
Weber State @ Utah State	+7.8	149.6	77%	73–83	✓
UC San Diego @ Fresno State	+5.4	136.9	61%	78–73	✗
Cal Poly @ Colorado State	+15.8	147.8	86%	79–93	✓
Idaho @ San Diego	+0.0	144.9	40%	74–78	✓
Manhattan @ Utah Tech	+2.5	154.0	65%	79–75	✗
South Dakota State @ Oregon	+2.9	128.6	57%	69–83	✓
North Texas @ Oregon State	+3.1	130.5	63%	64–66	✓
Southern Illinois @ Nevada	+8.2	146.2	77%	81–86	✓
Portland State @ San Francisco	+4.8	147.7	70%	70–80	✓
Eastern Washington @ Seattle U	+4.3	145.6	62%	67–94	✓
Long Beach State @ Pacific	+15.2	141.3	86%	66–69	✓
Montana State @ Stanford	+16.5	141.4	87%	68–77	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Hawai'i	+25.4	146.6	91%	56–88	✓
Central Michigan @ South Alabama	+4.2	142.7	73%	64–66	✓
Cornell @ Lafayette	+1.5	155.5	56%	97–78	✗
Pittsburgh @ West Virginia	+4.1	126.8	57%	49–71	✓
San José State @ Michigan State	+7.8	139.5	75%	60–79	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.