Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -24.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Over |
| Money | IU -20000 MILW +3000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +31 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | IU -31.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 172.0 (-1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IU -19.3 (+11.7) | 157.0 (+14.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -22.5 (+8.5) | 161.2 (+9.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IU -26.1 (+4.9) | 159.2 (+11.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -24.3 (+6.7) | 161.6 (+9.4) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | MILW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 8-12 |
| Home | 14-4 | 9-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.2 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 79.9 |
| Massey | 16.6 (#6) | -4.1 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#42) | 0.03 (#170) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.48 (#35) | -0.15 (#187) |
| RPI | 0.917 (#9) | 0.354 (#291) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | MILW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 55.6% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 46.2% | 39.0% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 2.63 | 1.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 65.3% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 12.3% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.7% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 77.9% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.8% | 33.0% |
Game Analysis
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