Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -24.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -50000 SJSU +3500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +19 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -8.6 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (-3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | MSU -7.8 (+11.2) | 139.5 (-0.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -8.8 (+10.2) | 137.4 (+1.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -7.1 (+11.9) | 137.6 (+1.4) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 3-17 |
| Home | 15-2 | 6-10 |
| Away | 6-4 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 79.2 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#187) | 1.4 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#109) | -0.49 (#222) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#114) | -0.61 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.729 (#43) | 0.500 (#157) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 20.0% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 46.0 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 19.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 0.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.2% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 47.5% | 36.9% |
| FT Rate | 34.7% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 62.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 61.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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