Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | FRES -130 UCSD +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +5 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | FRES -6.4 (-11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (+10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -5.4 (-10.4) | 136.9 (+14.1) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -6.0 (-11.0) | 136.7 (+14.3) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 12-8 |
| Home | 10-7 | 10-5 |
| Away | 2-10 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#221) | 2.4 (#135) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#304) | 0.51 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.26 (#270) | 0.74 (#134) |
| RPI | 0.263 (#331) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 58.6% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 31.6% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.6% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 81.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 9.1% |
Game Analysis
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