Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | SF -800 PRST +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +10 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | SF -11.1 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.4 (-5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -4.8 (+5.2) | 147.7 (+2.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -6.8 (+3.2) | 144.1 (+5.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -10.4 (-0.4) | 144.5 (+5.5) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 20-11 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-6 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#110) | 3.4 (#115) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#247) | -0.28 (#201) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#244) | -0.24 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.250 (#334) | 0.750 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 48.1% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 56.8% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 26.4% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 59.5% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 50.9% |
Game Analysis
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