Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | ETSU -290 NKU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +12 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -21.4 (-9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.0 (-14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -10.7 (+1.3) | 141.1 (-3.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -12.6 (-0.6) | 140.4 (-2.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -14.4 (-2.4) | 134.8 (+3.2) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-10 |
| Home | 13-4 | 12-5 |
| Away | 8-6 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 78.7 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#163) | -10.1 (#333) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#282) | -0.39 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.75 (#298) | -0.58 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.250 (#334) | 0.750 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.2% | 36.2% |
| 3PT% | 23.1% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 25.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.6% | 44.0% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 8.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 61.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.5% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 63.3% | 48.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.6% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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