Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -28.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 168.5 Under |
| Money | VAN -100000 EKU +4000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +30 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | VAN -35.3 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 172.7 (-18.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -24.1 (+5.9) | 156.7 (-2.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -32.1 (-2.1) | 157.7 (-3.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -30.5 (-0.5) | 159.5 (-5.5) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-3 | 8-7 |
| Away | 8-4 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.7 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 83.1 |
| Massey | 17.8 (#4) | -6.7 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.30 (#16) | -1.69 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.40 (#15) | -2.39 (#324) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#107) | 0.500 (#157) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 55.9% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 46.3% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 3.50 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 67.3% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 8.2% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 4.0% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.7% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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