Betting Lines
| Spread | PAC -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | PAC -900 LBSU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PAC +3 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | PAC -24.9 (-21.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.5 (-15.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PAC -15.2 (-12.2) | 141.3 (-6.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PAC -15.6 (-12.6) | 141.5 (-6.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PAC | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-14 |
| Home | 11-3 | 7-9 |
| Away | 4-11 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 79.0 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#80) | -8.4 (#316) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#218) | -1.34 (#307) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#194) | -1.88 (#303) |
| RPI | — | 0.312 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PAC | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 34.8% |
| 3PT% | 45.5% | 20.0% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.12 | 0.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 38.8% |
| TOV% | 11.9% | 26.0% |
| ORB% | 18.4% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 60.0% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 41.4% | 31.2% |
Game Analysis
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