Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | LONG -105 JMU -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +10 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -11.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.9 (+5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -2.9 (+7.1) | 142.4 (+11.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -4.2 (+5.8) | 140.1 (+13.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -2.8 (+7.2) | 141.7 (+12.3) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-10 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#189) | -1.4 (#208) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#190) | -0.11 (#183) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#186) | -0.08 (#182) |
| RPI | 0.750 (#26) | 0.542 (#134) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 31.9% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 20.0% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 34.8% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 9.9% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 63.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 48.0% | 44.5% |
Game Analysis
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