Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | MARQ -7500 LR +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +40 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -17.8 (+22.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.8 (-16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -13.9 (+26.1) | 145.3 (-7.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -17.2 (+22.8) | 148.6 (-10.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -17.7 (+22.3) | 147.7 (-9.7) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 9-11 |
| Home | 10-7 | 7-6 |
| Away | 2-10 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#166) | -6.6 (#292) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#196) | -0.68 (#248) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#205) | -1.19 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#242) | 0.250 (#334) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 50.0% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 26.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 38.5% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 66.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 32.1% |
Game Analysis
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