Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -34.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 167.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +50 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | USF -24.5 (+25.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.1 (-20.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -18.6 (+31.4) | 148.0 (+2.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -20.2 (+29.8) | 151.6 (-1.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -22.5 (+27.5) | 155.4 (-5.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -23.0 (+27.0) | 155.5 (-5.5) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-9 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 5-9 |
| Home | 13-2 | 3-6 |
| Away | 9-3 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.8 | 64.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 81.0 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#137) | -11.4 (#342) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#262) | -2.00 (#335) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#252) | -3.02 (#341) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#249) | 0.278 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 26.2% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 16.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 25.3% |
| ORB% | 41.8% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 45.5% | 34.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 56.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.3% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 42.1% | 39.5% |
Game Analysis
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