Betting Lines
| Spread | ORE -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | ORE -3000 SDST +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORE +14 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | ORE -3.1 (+10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.7 (+25.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORE -2.9 (+11.1) | 128.6 (+23.4) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORE -1.9 (+12.1) | 128.5 (+23.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORE -1.1 (+12.9) | 129.3 (+22.7) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORE | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 7-9 |
| Home | 10-7 | 9-4 |
| Away | 2-8 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#264) | 2.8 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#118) | 0.47 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#137) | 0.72 (#135) |
| RPI | 0.688 (#53) | 0.556 (#123) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORE | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.5% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 20.5% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 45.0 | 41.5 |
| OREB / G | 16.5 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.64 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 38.6% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 23.5% | 23.5% |
| ORB% | 40.7% | 39.4% |
| FT Rate | 38.2% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.2% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 80.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.7% | 31.4% |
Game Analysis
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